About Predicus

Predicus is a decision support consulting company that has developed an advanced probabilistic performance assessment and simulation process that greatly enhances executive-level decision-making for complex projects. This proprietary Predicus Process sets a higher standard for contemporary due diligence by facilitating a new way to assess uncertainty and performance in project management.

Moving decision support beyond spreadsheets and bias

Probabilities and impacts of critical “soft events” are often inadequately assessed, particularly when risk perspectives are limited to the confines of a complex spreadsheet. Further challenging is the fact that most engineers, estimators, developers and entrepreneurs are either too optimistic or reluctant to admit their uncertainties. Predicus brings the elicitation experience required to uncover and quantify these uncertainties.

Bringing new and invaluable insights into project risk

While some probabilities can be formulated from statistics within spreadsheets, truly effective decision strategies include a broader range of issues that are quantified and tempered by unbiased expert opinion. Predicus combines both the exceptional teams and tools required to guide this comprehensive decision support process; quantify the impact of all forms of perceived project performance issues; identify mitigation strategies; and deliver the decision-making framework that supports management with comprehensive performance assessment over the entire life cycle of significant, complex, long-term projects.

Delivering the state-of-the-art in probabilistic risk analysis and decision strategy for complex long-term projects

• Creates a single integrated model that simulates all relationships and risk sources over the entire project life cycle
• Identifies, analyzes and quantifies all uncertainties and constraints that affect project success or failure
• Assesses likelihood of occurrence and probable consequences of the project with a variety of metrics and performance descriptors defined by the client
• Identifies and develops appropriate prioritization and mitigation strategies
• Incorporates risk assessment into the financial decision process
• Establishes guidelines for project development and management
• Provides an easily understood communication tool for gaining financial, regulatory, political and public support

Bringing a new dimension to portfolio performance assessments

• Creates a quantitative basis for examining competing project investments—even if they are at different stages of development—against common metrics such as success, schedule, budgets, political risk of take-over, etc.
• Provides defensibility for stopping a portfolio project strategy at the earliest opportunity if the risks of failure, even with tolerable mitigation, are deemed unacceptable
• Provides justification for redirecting resources to those portfolio projects that deliver the greatest benefit to the portfolio’s strategic or commercial value