The Predicus Process

Main activities: For a client’s challenging executive-level decisions, the Predicus Process entails three main activities carried out in phases over a 4 to 6 month period:

1. Developing a Success Precedence Diagram. The first phase begins with the need to map out the entire baseline project plan as it currently exists; this is done in order to ensure that the plan incorporates all the necessary components and adequately addresses all of the requirements for success.  Once this clear definition of a successful outcome is established, Predicus consultants, in partnership with the client’s own experts, must determine all the possible steps and interactions that lead up to the successful outcome.
2. Establishing Uncertainties and Probability Distributions. After the success precedence diagram is developed, the next activity is to establish the degree of uncertainty of each component in the baseline plan, especially in terms of success/failure, cost, and time required; other key uncertainties may include things like availability of resources, costs of financial borrowing, legal events, etc. Contingency plans to address these deviations from the baseline plan are mapped out; for example, if a required permit is refused or delayed, what action could be taken? Finally, key go/no-go milestones are established for the project and the basis for the go/no-go decisions is set up.
3. Simulations Using the Success Precedence Diagram. The final event in the process is the probabilistic simulation of the success precedence diagram with defined uncertainties that is the product of the first two components. Following generation of the model’s results, the client typically is going to want to reconfigure the baseline project plan in order to avoid the problems revealed by the analysis of the results. If the project baseline plan is not finalized at the time of the first Predicus Process activities, then the analysis of the model could result in consideration of several alternatives for key project components.

Use of GoldSim
Predicus uses GoldSim Simulation Software because it is a sophisticated tool with all of the elements necessary for strategic management and financial decisions;  GoldSim is  accepted and validated by the NRC and it is being used currently for performance assessment on the Yucca Mountain repository project. Use of GoldSim is a crucially important factor in the Predicus Process because it will provide a tool to manage the inevitable requests for more data from regulators and permitting authorities.

A GoldSim model simulation produces probability distributions of:

1. The ultimate goal of “success”
2. Subsidiary goals such as:

• Receiving necessary permits (Federal and State, and Local)
• The total cost of the project and the costs of subsidiary steps.
• The overall time taken to reach the ultimate goal.
• The time taken to reach each defined step in the overall process.

The components described above will also enable:

1. Improved quality of executive decisions on the cost effectiveness of various steps modeled in the process.
2. Production of a master project plan, which has proven to be a useful benefit for assessing project performance through time.
3. Comparison of the pros and cons between alternative approaches to the project.

Repeating the Predicus Process
The process described above is for a single cycle of the Predicus Process.  Predicus believes that while a single cycle has significant value there is additional value in repeating the process at appropriate intervals for projects that remain in the client’s portfolio. These intervals are best determined when significant events occur or project progress resolves or reduces uncertainties. In these cases the Success Precedence Diagram will likely be expanded and refined, especially as the uncertainties will have changed.  The resultant simulations will reveal whether the probability of success in meeting the overall goals is improving and what activities or events contributed to the change. Equally, if the probability of success is decreasing, then there will be clear incentive for further analysis to understand the activities or events and uncertainties contributing to the change in order to guide executive decisions whether to allocate resources for improvement or whether to continue or terminate the project.

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